Research on strategy of antifragile mechanism in safety risk management

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.12.002

Abstract

Abstract: In order to effectively control safety risks, antifragile mechanism was applied into research of safety risk prevention and control strategies based on vulnerability research and risk theory system from Antifragile-Things that Gain from Disorder written by NASSIM Nicholas Taleb. New awareness of safety risk prevention was explained and barbell strategy was put forward. For risk preference side, redundancy and rational trial was adopted while for risk aversion side, vulnerability control was adopted, and a quantitative study was made on vulnerability of subway stations in fire. Finally, a vulnerability evaluation model was constructed by using catastrophe theory, and corresponding suggestions were given according to evaluation results to guide fire risk management for subway operation. The research shows that safety risk management and control from antifragile perspective should not only consider possible losses of the system, but also actively explore potential profit opportunities brought by risks. As an important part of antifragile, controlling vulnerability is a way to manage safety risk from the angle of extreme risk aversion in barbell strategy.

Key words: antifragile, safety risk management, vulnerability, barbell strategy, catastrophe theory

CLC Number:

X915.2

SONG Shouxin, CHEN Mingli, ZHAI Huaiyuan. Research on strategy of antifragile mechanism in safety risk management[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(12): 8-15.

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